INLA methodology
There are various methodologies for the computational implementation of Bayesian inference, simulation methods such as MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo), or approximate methods like VB (variational Bayes); all of them with their own challenges. However, INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation) is a deterministic approximate approach, developed by (Rue, Martino y Chopin, 2009) and expanded upon in (Lindgren y Rue, 2015; Rue y col., 2017; Bakka y col., 2018). . It allows for Bayesian inference in a set of structured additive models, termed latent Gaussian models (LGMs). The INLA method enables the calculation of joint posterior distributions, the marginal distributions of each parameter and hyperparameter, as well as combinations of these or the posterior predictive distributions.
At the core of INLA is the Laplace approximation applied to the expression of the conditional probability distribution of the latent field. This implies that the latent structure must follow a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) that can be linked to latent Gaussian models (Lindgren, Rue y Lindström). Although many models can be rewritten in such a way that their structure is similar to an LGM.
Laplace Approximation
The Laplace approximation for a density function
where the function
That is, the function is evaluated when the first derivative is null, so the first-order term in the Taylor series expansion can be simplified. Also, if we express the second-order term as
then we can express the Laplace approximation as the kernel of a Gaussian function:
Gaussian Markov Random Field
A Gaussian MArkov Random Field (GMRF) is a Gaussian Field (GF) with Markov properties. This means that, given a random vector
and
If the precision matrix
In the case where
Suppose
The diagonal elements of
Gaussian Latent Fields
The structure on which INLA is based can be summarised in the following hierarchical model:
where
The second level is the latent Gaussian field, which constitutes a latent Gaussian model (LGM). LGMs are a class of models that follow Gaussian processes, be it for time series, spatial models, iid random effects, cluster random effects, etc. Therefore, the Gaussian field that has the above structure can also be formulated according to the linear predictor of the model as
where
Based on the above expression, we can reformulate it in matrix terms
where each effect
Key Articles
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Bakka, H., Rue, H., Fuglstad, G.-A., Riebler, A. I., Bolin, D., Illian, J., Krainski, E., Simpson, D. P., & Lindgren, F. K. (2018). Spatial modelling with INLA: A review. In Wires (Vol. xx, Issue Feb). https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1443
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Lindgren, F., Rue, H., & Lindström, J. (2011). An explicit link between gaussian fields and gaussian markov random fields: The stochastic partial differential equation approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology, 73(4). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2011.00777.x
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Lindgren, F., & Rue, H. (2015). Bayesian spatial modelling with R-INLA. Journal of Statistical Software, 63(19). https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v063.i19
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Rue, H., Martino, S., & Chopin, N. (2009). Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology, 71(2). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x
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Rue, H., Riebler, A., Sørbye, S., Illian, J., Simpson, D. & Lindgren, F. (2017). Bayesian Computing with INLA: A Review. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 4:1, 395-421. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-060116-054045
Books
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Blangiardo, M., & Cameletti, M. (2015). Spatial and Spatio-temporal Bayesian Models with R - INLA. In Spatial and Spatio-temporal Bayesian Models with R - INLA. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118950203
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Gómez-Rubio, V. (2020). Bayesian Inference with INLA. In Bayesian Inference with INLA. Chapman & Hall/CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315175584
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Moraga, P. (2019). Geospatial Health Data. Chapman and Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429341823
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Krainski, E., Gómez-Rubio, V., Bakka, H., Lenzi, A., Castro-Camilo, D., Simpson, D., Lindgren, F., & Rue, H. (2018). Advanced Spatial Modeling with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations Using R and INLA. In Advanced Spatial Modeling with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations Using R and INLA. https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429031892
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Rue, H., & Held, L. (2005). Gaussian Markov Random Fields. Chapman and Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203492024
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Xiaofeng Wang, Ryan Yue, & Faraway, J. J. (2018). Bayesian Regression Modeling with INLA. Chapman & Hall.